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The safety and security of the airline is never compromised. Decisions about whether to operate flights to a particular destination are based on a wide range of factors. These include internal risk assessments as well as guidance from trusted external security partners and government bodies such as the Department for Transport (DfT).

It’s understandable that when a situation is frequently covered in the media, it can influence public perception. However, security risks exist in many regions. Our destinations are continuously reviewed, and decisions are made using the most up-to-date and credible information available from both internal and external sources.

The DfT provide the conduit for airspace threat assessments based on various intelligence feeds, CHIRP reached out to the DfT and I have the following comment from them to share –

DfT is responsible for providing advice to UK registered aircraft operating in overseas airspace where there are risks linked to ongoing conflict. It is a host state responsibility to issue warnings of potential risks to civil aviation operations but, where this is not done, the UK will issue its own advice. This is done through issuing Notice to Airmen (NOTAMs).  The UK follows a three-tiered approach to NOTAMs as follows:

Level 1 (Advisory) is the lowest level of advice and highlights concerns for airlines to consider in their own risk assessments.

Level 2 (Recommendation) recommends airlines do not operate either below a certain altitude, or at all, over specific airspace.

Level 3 (Legal Prohibition) the NOTAM is accompanied by a legal Direction under the Aviation Security Act to UK airlines, making it an offence to enter certain airspace.

DfT-issued NOTAMs only apply to UK airlines and UK registered aircraft and His Majesty’s Government (HMG) has no ability to require airlines registered in other countries which may be carrying UK nationals to avoid using particular airspace.

Aside from a Level 3 NOTAM, which utilizes legal powers, it is ultimately down to individual airlines to decide if they will operate or not based on their own internal risk assessments, however going against formal HMG advice may impact on their liability and insurance should an incident occur.

Industry will (and do) take operational decisions on pausing flights where they judge the risk has reached their threshold. Different airlines have different thresholds. DfT remains in regular contact with UK airlines operating in the wider region. This includes: ongoing bilateral engagement with individual carriers on route-specific queries; bi-annual “all carriers” meetings on overflights risks (including a threat briefing at SECRET from UK intelligence partners); and ad hoc “all carriers” meetings in response to developing events (a crisis response mechanism). All of the major UK air carriers have security cleared staff within their security departments who are able to be briefed by appropriate HMG partners.

Internationally, DfT represents the UK in a number of expert forums including the Safer Skies Consultative Committee (SSCC) and the Expert Group on Risk Identification for Conflict Zones (EGRICZ) which bring together states-level experts in this area to develop best practice and guidance in this area; EGRICZ also has a coordination function in a crisis to try and align state responses where possible. DfT also works closely on a bilateral basis with key like-minded partners including the 5Eyes as well as France, Germany and EASA amongst others.

DfT assesses the level of threat to civil aviation in overseas airspace in line with ICAO guidance (Doc 10084, 3^rd edition, published October 2023). This is informed by information from the Joint Terrorism Analysis Centre (JTAC) and Defence Intelligence on state-based capabilities. There is a rolling programme of assessments for those areas where DfT has existing airspace advice, ensuring advice does not remain in place when it is not required. For fast developing situations (e.g. Sudan, Israel/Hamas) DfT uses fast-time reporting from HMG and open-sources to make an initial assessment of the situation and issue relevant advice which is then refined as more information and considered assessments become available.